Labor has narrow Newspoll lead but behind in other polls; Labor doomed in Queensland
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Newspoll, conducted July 15–19 from a sample of 1,258, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others (down two).
Both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton gained on net approval, with Albanese up four points to -7, with 51% dissatisfied (down two) and 44% satisfied (up two). Dutton’s net approval was up eight points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 46–39 (46–38 three weeks ago).
Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The data are marked with plus signs with a smoothed line fitted. After a bad result last Newspoll, Albanese’s ratings have returned to their normal run since the October 2023 Voice referendum.
Dutton’s -8 net approval is the best for him since October 2022, and his seven-point better PM deficit is a record high.
While Newspoll has Labor ahead, other polls have Labor behind. As long as the cost of living is dominating voters’ concerns, it’s likely the incumbent government will struggle.
Asked about preferred Labor leader, 28% selected Albanese, 13% Tanya Plibersek, 10% Bill Shorten and 8% Jim Chalmers. Among Labor voters, Albanese was way ahead with 59%. Dutton was preferred as Coalition leader by 28%, with Jacinta Price on 12%, with Dutton on 54% with Coalition voters.
Freshwater poll: Coalition gains lead
A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 19–21 from a sample of 1,003, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent allocated preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since June. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others.
Albanese’s net approval fell two points to -14, with 48% unfavourable and 34% favourable. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -3. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 45–39 (43–41 in June). By 50–21, voters believed the economy would worsen in the next 12 months, rather than improve.
The cost of living was rated one of the most important issues by 73%, with housing on 42%, managing the economy and health at 26% each and crime at 25%. The Coalition led Labor by 12 points on cost of living, with this lead up three points since June. They led on housing by two points, a three-point improvement for Labor.
Essential poll: Coalition leads by 48–46
A national Essential poll, conducted July 10–14 from a sample of 1,122, gave the Coalition a 48–46 lead including undecided (47–46 in late June). Primary votes were 33% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (up two), 9% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (down one).
Since early April, Labor has only led once in Essential. This is partly because Essential’s respondent allocated preferences have been weak for Labor. Analyst Kevin Bonham said in the current Essential, Labor had just 53% of all preferences.
By 37–30, voters were satisfied with democracy, but they were dissatisfied with federal parliament by 43–29. By 75–25, voters thought most politicians enter politics to serve their own interest, rather than the public interest. By 42–38, they thought a single-party majority government was better than negotiating with other parties or independents to form government.
On political engagement, 7% said they actively participate in politics, 42% closely follow politics, 37% had little interest and 15% no interest. For sport, 15% participated in sport, 37% closely follow sport, 29% had little interest and 19% no interest.
The most popular sports to watch were the Olympics (48%), AFL (40%), tennis (36%), cricket (33%), rugby (33%) and soccer (28%). On sports betting advertising, 43% (down three since August 2023) said it should be banned outright, 25% (steady) allowed, but not during sports events and 17% (up one) allowed at all times.
On the upcoming Olympics, 64% (up 11 since the 2021 Olympics) thought Australia winning gold medals important, while 30% (down 11) said it was not important. This implies expectation management could be a problem.
Additional Resolve questions
I previously covered the federal Resolve poll that had Labor and Albanese continuing to slide. In additional questions, asked whether they had noticed a tax cut in their pay packet as a result of the modified stage three plan, 57% said “no” and 43% “yes”.
By 54–16, voters supported Labor granting more freedom to its parliamentarians to vote against the party, with Labor voters supporting by 54–14. By 41–29, voters thought Fatima Payman should resign from the Senate to make way for a Labor senator over staying on as an independent.
Queensland YouGov poll: Labor doomed at election
The Queensland state election will be held on October 26. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted July 8–15 from a sample of 1,019, gave the Liberal National Party a 57–43 lead over Labor, a one-point gain for the LNP since April. Primary votes were 43% LNP (down one), 26% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (down one), 13% One Nation (up three) and 4% for all Others (steady).
Labor Premier Steven Miles’ net approval jumped nine points to -13, with 44% dissatisfied and 31% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval improved three points to +17. Crisafulli continued to lead as better premier by 40–29 (40–27 in April).
Since a March Newspoll gave the LNP a 54–46 lead, all Queensland polls have been ugly for Labor, and it’s virtually certain they will lose the October election, ending almost ten years of Labor state government.
Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition has large primary vote lead
A Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal June and July Resolve polls from a sample of “more than 1,100”, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (steady since May), Labor 27% (down one), the Greens 15% (up two), independents 15% (down one) and others 6% (steady).
Resolve does not usually include a two-party estimate, but Resolve director Jim Reed said Labor and the Coalition would be “extremely close” in a two-party contest. This poll was done before the revelations of alleged corrupt behaviour by the CFMEU.
Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by 31–28 as preferred premier (31–26 in May). By 57–22, voters supported the Victorian government’s plan to increase the number of homes by 2 million by 2051.
However, voters were opposed by 57–28 to the state government’s plan to lift the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12 years old, and further increase it to 14 years old in 2027.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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