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The Times

As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

There have been five national polls conducted since the March 29 budget. Newspoll gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since mid-March, and Ipsos a 55-45 lead (its first poll since the 2019...

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